Upcoming Events

The next event is on Thursday, February 27th:

LIRa session: Michael Cohen


Speaker: Michael Cohen (Tilburg University)

Date and Time: Thursday, February 27th 2025, 16:30-18:00

Venue: ILLC Seminar Room F1.15, Science Park 107 and online.

Title: Imperfect Recall and Monty Hall

Abstract. Philosophical arguments for the rationality of Bayesian conditioning, such as diachronic Dutch book arguments, often refer to assumptions and concepts from epistemic logic without fully explicating them. In this talk, I use dynamic epistemic logic (DEL) to analyze the underlying logical assumptions of these philosophical arguments. I show that Perfect Recall is an important epistemic principle at the heart of the project of justifying Bayesian conditioning. Following the existing Bayesian literature, I use Monty Hall style cases to demonstrate the connection between Perfect Recall and the commitments of Bayesian conditioning. Along the way, we get an interesting DEL modelling of the Monty Hall puzzle.

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